Covid 19 Environment Impact On Disease And Exposure Prevention Essay

HHPH 210 – ENVIORNMENTAL

PROJECT GUIDELINES/RUBRIC

Project: research the role of a chosen environmental exposure/issue on human health. This project will take place in two parts: Covid 19 Environment Impact On Disease And Exposure Prevention Essay

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PART I: The research paper will serve as the basis for part two of the project, which is developing a Public Service Announcement (PSA) for your chosen topic.

Reflection: Think back to the week one discussion where you identified several environmental issues that you felt were a potential issue to you or loved ones. Or, consider environmental health issues that you may have heard about in the news.

Environmental Impact on Disease

Relate the environmental impact or toxicant to your disease. Make the connection for how the issue is relevant to your audience. For example, if your topic is the role of pesticides on developing diabetes, provide the relevant research that connects pesticides and diabetes. Don’t forget to include contradictory studies. You should always present both pro and anti-research to strengthen your argument, but show any potential weaknesses in studies as applicable, to strengthen your argument. Covid 19 Environment Impact On Disease And Exposure Prevention Essay

1. Exposure Prevention

In this section, consider all aspects of possible prevention from an individual, community, and population perspective. Consider policy and procedure, recommendations for how to reduce exposure, whatever is appropriate for your topic.

2. Conclusion

3. References

Please use at least 5 references, where at least three are peer-reviewed journal article from 2015-current. The other two references may come from other sources; such as the CDC or the EPA, etc.

You should expect to address these topics in 4-6 pages, times new roman, 12 point font APA-style, double spaced.

COVID-19 being a novel virus and as the outbreak continues to evolve, research is ongoing to better understand
its dynamics of transmission and improve case management among others. COVID-19 has potential to cause
many infections through human-to-human transmission and lead to a significant number of severe cases that
could overwhelm the health care system, and a substantial number of deaths. However, if persons infected are
detected in a timely manner and rigorous infection control measures applied, the likelihood of sustained
human-to-human transmission can be reduced.
Public health experts have consistently warned that the novel coronavirus outbreak presents a unique public
health threat to the African continent. Gilbert, Pullano, Pinotti, et al. (2020) use two indicators to determine
the capacity of countries to detect and respond to cases: preparedness, using the WHO International Health
Regulations Monitoring and Evaluation Framework; and vulnerability, using the Infectious Disease
Vulnerability Index. Based on their analysis, Egypt, Algeria, and South Africa had the highest importation risk,
and a moderate to high capacity to respond to outbreaks. Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Angola, Tanzania, Ghana,
and Kenya had moderate risk with variable capacity and high vulnerability. Covid 19 Environment Impact On Disease And Exposure Prevention Essay
Furthermore, it is widely thought the economic fallout for the continent is likely to be severe and long-lasting.
Many of its countries have a high dependence on commodity exports to China, relatively weak sovereign
balance sheets, high debt burdens and volatile currencies, among numerous other external fragilities. The
disease’s negative impact on the world economy has already translated into a decline in demand for the
primary products that Africa exports, such as oil from Angola and Nigeria and rare minerals from Democratic
Republic of the Congo. The UN Economic Commission for Africa estimates Africa’s growth will drop by 1.4%
from 3.2% to 1.8 % as a result of the coronavirus.
3 Among other things, the decline is due to disruption of global
supply chains and a crash in oil prices that will cost up to US$65 billion in export revenues.4
Furthmore, tourism
has been adversely affected, as international travelers stay home, hurting the economies of South Africa and
Kenya, among others. Investors, confronted with a litany of unknowns about the disease and its consequences,
are fleeing from emerging markets, at least for the time being.
This policy brief assesses the possible vulnerabilities and impacts on Kenya of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Although it is too early to predict the socio-economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Kenyan
econ0my, this policy brief uses an adapted World Bank conceptual and methodological framework which was
used to analyse the economic impact of the Ebola virus disease in West Africa 2014-2016 to identify the
pathways of the CODIV-19 pandemic impact on the economy, poverty and inequality, women and girls,
refugees, internal displaced persons (IDPs) and migrants, education, food security and nutrition and
governance and security. There has already been adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the several
sectors of the economy in particular; tourism, agriculture, manufacturing and trade putting people’s jobs and
livelihoods at risk. The policy brief argues that considering the adverse socio-economic impacts of the COVID19 pandemic on the health and livelihoods of families and communities, in particular the most vulnerable
groups which will regress progress across the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), policymakers, should
adopt a whole of government and society approach to lessen the adverse impacts.
3 United Nations Economic Commision For Africa (13 March 2020). “ECA estimates billions worth of losses in Africa due to COVID-19 impact,”
Available at https://www.uneca.org/stories/eca-estimates-billions-worth-losses-africa-due-covid-19-impact
4
ibid. Covid 19 Environment Impact On Disease And Exposure Prevention Essay
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2. Pathways of the Socio-Economic Impact of the COVID -19 Pandemic
The socio-economic impact of the COVID-19 epidemic operates through two distinct channels (see figure 1.1).
First are the direct and indirect effects of the sickness, which results from when an income-earner in the
household falls ill, the ratio of active members to dependents falls. The effects may be compounded by lost
earnings and taking care of the ill family member, or funeral costs upon death. Ill-health and limited resilience
capacities can create multiplier effects. One study of eleven (11) countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and South and
Southeast Asia found that in the absence of health insurance or other forms of universal health coverage,
responses to health shocks by people in poverty or near the poverty line commonly included distress sales of
assets and taking out loans from informal moneylenders, sometimes at exploitative rates.
5 Thus, the coronavirus
will be another source of impoverishment and reinforce existing factors, in turn limiting the ability of vulnerable
households to escape from – and stay out of – poverty.
6
Second are aversion behaviour effects resulting from the fear of catching the virus, which in turn leads to a fear
of association with others and reduces labor force participation, closes places of employment, disrupts
transportation, motivates some governments to close borders and restrict entry of citizens from afflicted
countries, and motivates private decision makers to disrupt trade, travel, and commerce by canceling
scheduled commercial flights and reducing shipping and cargo services. As depicted in the figure 1.1, this
aversion behaviour is through three sources: Covid 19 Environment Impact On Disease And Exposure Prevention Essay
‐ Governments impose bans on certain types of activities, as when the Government of China orders
factories to shut down or Italy closes most shops throughout the country or the Kenya Judiciary’s
suspension of court hearings across the country starting Monday, March 16, 2020 for two weeks in order
to allow for further consultations and to design appropriate measures to prevent the spread of the
coronavirus7which will have an adverse effect on the justice system.
‐ Firms and institutions (including schools and private companies) take proactive measures to avoid
infection. Business closures — whether through government bans or business decisions — result in lost
wages for workers in many cases, especially in the informal economy where there is no paid leave. After
the confirmation of the first case on 13 March 2020, Kenya introduced various restrictions such as the
entry of foreigners from countries that have confirmed coronavirus cases, working at home and closing
of learning institutions.8 Other restrictions have since been placed by 47 individual governors in their
respective counties. Barely a few days into the restrictions, small-scale traders in Nairobi were already
filling the effects of coronavirus-induced hardships

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Three Stages of the COVID-19 Epidemic in China and the Impact
In this section, I describe China’s COVID-19 epidemic, the Chinese government’s responses,
and the combined impact on the economy, in three chronological stages.
Stage One: Awakening to the Epidemic (December 2019 to January 20, 2020)
The Epidemic and Chinese Government’s Actions
A cluster of pneumonia of unknown etiology appeared in Wuhan in December 2019, where
several cases were associated with exposure to a seafood market. Wuhan health officials closed
the market and announced the 27 cases on December 30, 2019, after a few doctors in Wuhan sent
social media messages warning their acquaintances about a “SARS-like” pneumonia. Three
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese CDC) expert teams were dispatched
to Wuhan for investigation. The first two went to Wuhan on January 1 and January 8,
respectively. They concluded that there was no person-to-person transmission, the epidemic was
under control, and no new cases were reported. Meanwhile, the virus’s genomic data were shared
with GenBank of the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) and Global Initiative on Sharing
All Influenza Data (GISAID) by the Chinese CDC and Fudan University on January 11. Soon
after, these original genetic data helped Japan and Thailand link their new COVID cases to
Wuhan. A third expert team from the central government went to Wuhan on January 19 and
confirmed the person-to-person transmission. On January 20, the Chinese government hosted a
high-level political meeting on COVID-19 management, triggered the national public health
emergency, and added COVID-19 to the national Infectious Disease Information System (IDIS)
that would guarantee mandatory case reporting according to the China’s Health Emergency
Regulations.9 For more discussion about the epidemic and Chinese government’s actions at this
stage, see my previous testimony.10
Impact on the Economy
Even before the lockdown, NASA satellite images showed Wuhan to have lower levels of
pollutants in January 2020 than the same time a year ago, indicating a slowdown in industrial
9 Library of Congress, “China: Legal Responses to Health Emergencies,” webpage, last updated June 9, 2015
(https://www.loc.gov/law/help/health-emergencies/china.php).
10 Jennifer Bouey, “From SARS to 2019-Coronavirus (nCoV): U.S.-China Collaborations on Pandemic Response,”
testimony presented before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, and Nonproliferation on
February 5, 2020, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, CT-523, 2020
(https://www.rand.org/pubs/testimonies/CT523.html). Covid 19 Environment Impact On Disease And Exposure Prevention Essay
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production, either because of the new, as yet unknown disease or because of undetermined
causes that linked to the overall economic environment.11 The domestic consumer market and
service sector now contribute more than half of China’s GDP. However, multiple sectors were
suffering significant demand weakness in the past year, most notably the automotive sector and
smartphones.12 The Chinese government has also been trying to reduce the high level of
domestic indebtedness that has led to less borrowing power for business. In other words, China’s
economy was facing many challenges and was slowing before COVID-19.
Stage Two: Quarantine and Shutdown (January 21, 2020, to February 21, 2020)
Epidemic: Wuhan Is the Epicenter of the Epidemic
On January 30, 2020, the WHO declared the situation a public health emergency of
international concern. Between January and February, there was spread of COVID-19 cases in
all 31 provinces of mainland China. Wuhan was the epicenter of the epidemic, with 83 percent of
all the cases and 95 percent of the deaths in China on February 21.13 Wuhan’s COVID-19 cases
also showed a 100-fold infection rate (per million population) and a four-times-higher CFR (4.2
percent), compared with those in other areas in China. Total Chinese reported case numbers
increased from 309 on January 21, 2020, to 76,392 on February 21, 2020.14
By February 13, 2020, the WHO had recorded 170 cases of COVID-19 that had been
reported outside China and had a connection to China. The majority of these cases (89 percent)
did not lead to further transmission of the virus, and 19 cases were associated with at least four
new infection clusters. The largest cluster involved 20 individuals in six countries.15
China’s Actions
The decision to lock down Wuhan on January 23, 2020, was made three days after the
government accepted the fact that the outbreak was fueled by person-to-person transmission. All
public transportation, including airports and railways from the city, were shut down two days
before the Chinese New Year. On January 28, 16 more cities in the same province (Hubei) were
under a similar lockdown policy. By January 29, all 31 provinces in China declared emergency
level 1 (the highest out of four levels), which enabled local governments to employ social
policing mechanisms to enforce self-quarantine, cancel public events, and prohibit crowd
11 Earth Observatory, NASA, “Airborne Nitrogen Dioxide Plummets Over China,” webpage, February 2020
(https://www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146362/airborne-nitrogen-dioxide-plummets-over-china). 12 McKinsey, “What Can We Expect in China in 2020?” December 2019 (https://www.mckinsey.com/featuredinsights/china/what-can-we-expect-in-china-in-2020). 13 World Health Organization, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Situation Report—33, February 22, 2020
(https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200222-sitrep-33-covid19.pdf?sfvrsn=c9585c8f_4).
14 World Health Organization, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Situation Report—33, February 22, 2020;
World Health Organization, Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): Situation Report—2, January 22, 2020
(https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200122-sitrep-2-2019-
ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=4d5bcbca_2). Covid 19 Environment Impact On Disease And Exposure Prevention Essay
15 World Health Organization, Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): Situation Report—24, February 13, 2020
(https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200213-sitrep-24-covid19.pdf?sfvrsn=9a7406a4_4).
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gatherings across the country. Most of the highways, railroads, and flights in China were shut
down, and people were asked to stay home as much as possible. All tour groups were canceled.
In rural areas, most villages in China closed traffic and set entrance checks. In the cities,
residential areas were divided into small districts where residents had to show ID, and a daily
quota was set to go in and out of the area. All business and recreational facilities, except grocery
stores, were closed during the extended Chinese New Year period. All residents were required to
wear face masks outdoors. Meanwhile, given the concentration and the severity of the COVID19 cases in Wuhan, the Chinese government mobilized resources, medical personnel, public
health teams, and testing kit productions to support Wuhan.
Internationally, countries have placed various levels of restrictions on travel to and from
China. As of February 19, international restrictions to China involved 99 countries in four forms:
(1) border closures for partial or total closure of a land border with China, (2) entry or exit bans
that generally restrict the ability of nationals to depart from their country for travel to China or
the ability of foreign travelers and nationals to enter a country after traveling from or transiting
through China, (3) visa restrictions that include total or partial visa suspensions or restrictions for
travelers originating from or traveling through China, and (4) flight suspensions that include
government bans on flights to or from China.16
Impact on the Economy
Although official data are not yet available, most analysts believe that the outbreak, mass
quarantine, and international travel ban began to severely affect China’s economy at the end of
January. Travel/tourism, hospitality, entertainment, and the financial industry suffered the most
during this period.17 Revenue lost in both retail and food services during the Chinese New Year
week is reported to be RMB 1 trillion ($142 billion), as major chains shuttered stores across the
country.18 Real estate sales and car sales also slumped.19 The service sector losses during the
Chinese New Year in 2020 are expected to cost China 1 percent of lost GDP growth in the first
quarter.20 Covid 19 Environment Impact On Disease And Exposure Prevention Essay
Not all retail sectors experienced losses. A Kantar (an international consulting company)
report showed that businesses relying on physical space and shops, such as supermarkets,
traditional food markets, restaurants, car dealers, movie theaters, gyms, and bars, suffered losses,
whereas local neighborhood markets (convenience stores) and online markets did particularly
16 Samantha Kiernan and Madeleine DeVita, Travel Restrictions on China Due to COVID-19, Think Global Health,
March 5, 2020 (https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/travel-restrictions-china-due-covid-19).
17 Weiwen Han, Karen Harris, and Thomas Luedi, How much Will Coroanvirus Hurt China’s Economy? Bain &
Company, February 8, 2020 (https://www.bain.com/insights/coronavirus-impact-china-gdp-snap-chart/).
18 “Virus Outbreak Cost China 1 Trillion Yuan Loss in Chinese New Year Week,” The Star, February 3, 2020
(https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2020/02/03/virus-outbreak-cost-china-1-trillion-yuan-loss-in-chinesenew-year-week). 19 “China Car Sales Slump 92% in First Half of February on Virus,” Bloomberg News, February 20, 2020
(https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-21/china-car-sales-tumble-92-in-first-half-of-february-onvirus).
20 Luohan Academy, “Seven Trends in China’s Macro-Economy,” February 13, 2020
(https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/f_dwO4BMeyEZsv-xm8hXPg).
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well. Online retail shops with apps built into social media were popular, as were such recent
innovations as human-free markets and vending machines (still relatively new to China).21
Data on online sales from the Data Insider Consulting report (based on Alipay Business
counsel) for February showed increases in personal health–related product sales (e.g., sanitizer,
personal protection gear, and vitamins and supplements), while sales of meat/fruit/deli, snacks,
luxury goods, and apparel suffered more than a 40 percent drop.22
The widespread outbreak, mass quarantine, and travel ban also had an impact on the
confidence of both domestic businesses and international companies, according to a survey of
761 business owners by the University of International Business and Economics in midFebruary.23 Among the 761 businesses, half were private Chinese companies, 20 percent were
international joint ventures, and 27 percent were State Owned Enterprises (SOEs); 18 percent
had online business. Thirty-five percent of companies had more than 1,000 employees, 29
percent had 1,000 employees, 14 percent had 50–100 employees, and 21 percent had fewer than
50 employees. Most of the business in the study fit the SME definition in China.24 Thirty percent Covid 19 Environment Impact On Disease And Exposure Prevention Essay
reported that company cash on hand could sustain their businesses for no more than three
months, and 30 percent reported cash coverage of six to 12 months. Half of the businesses
expected 10–30 percent loss of revenue this year. The most challenging issue reported was the
company’s cash flow.
The American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai conducted a survey of 127 American
companies operating in China between February 4 and 6.25 Among the 127 companies, 20
companies had China-sourced revenues of over $500 million, and 27 had Chinese revenues of
$100 million to $500 million. Eighty-seven percent of the companies responding believed that
coronavirus would have a direct impact on 2020 revenues, and 24 percent expected revenue to
fall by 16 percent or more. Twenty-nine percent of respondents believed that their corporate
headquarters did not sufficiently understand the potential economic impact of coronavirus. Sixty
percent of companies preferred staff to work remotely, 84.5 percent canceled meetings of over
20 people, 14 percent planned to repatriate foreign staff and their families, and 33 percent were
not sure of their plans. Eleven percent of the companies reported that they were reevaluating
their China strategies, while 40 percent felt that it was too early to tell. Notably, 3.1 percent
decided to move back to the United States and 5.5 percent to another country, and 56.7 percent
responded that they would not move out of China.
21 Kantar, 疫情之下，各行各业的危与机。, February 2020.
22 Data Insider, 疫情影响下 1000 个电商品类众生相, February 2020.
23 He Wen Long and Wu Jian Feng, Research Report on Companies’ Survival and Development Strategy During a
Novel Coronavirus Epidemic, Beijing: UIBE Press, Feburary 2020.
24 In China, an industrial SME is defined as having up to 2,000 employees. A small business had fewer than 300
employees. Liu Xiang Feng, “SME Development in China: A Policy Perspective on SME Industrial Clustering,” in
H. Lim, ed., SME in Asia and Globalization, ERIA Research Project Report 2007-5, 2008, pp. 37–68
(https://www.eria.org/SME%20Development%20in%20China_A%20Policy%20Perspective%20on%20SME%20In
dustrial%20Clustering.pdf).
25 American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, “AmCham Shanghai Coronavirus Impact Member Survey,”
February 7, 2020 (https://www.amcham-shanghai.org/en/article/amcham-shanghai-coronavirus-impact-membersurvey).
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SMEs in China, as in most countries around the world, are the engines of the economy. In
China, they compose more than 30 million entities, constituting 99.6 percent of China’s
companies and 80 percent of national employment. SMEs hold more than 70 percent of the
country’s patents. They account for more than 60 percent of China’s GDP and contribute more
than 50 percent of tax collections.26 They may also suffer the most during the coronavirus
epidemic. A survey conducted by researchers from Tsinghua University of 995 SMEs in
February showed that 30 percent of the companies have seen their income drop by more than 50
percent; another 28 percent reported a 20 percent to 50 percent drop. More than one-third of the
companies in the study reported that they could stay open for only one month with their current
cash flow, 33 percent could sustain two months, and less than 10 percent could stay open for
more than six months. Most of the financial pressure (62.8 percent) is from paying salaries and
employee insurance and social security; rent and loan payments were the second and third causes Covid 19 Environment Impact On Disease And Exposure Prevention Essay
for stress.27
Stage Three: “Back to Work” in China (February 21, 2020–Present)
Epidemic: COVID-19 Is Spreading Globally
On February 24, 2020, the WHO and China Joint Program concluded their COVID-19
investigation in China.28 On the same day, a joint WHO and European Centre for Disease
Prevention and Control mission arrived in Italy to support Italian authorities on the COVID-19
situation, indicating that the COVID-19 epidemic intervention focus has been switching from
China to other countries where community transmitted cases started to emerge: South Korea,
Japan, Singapore, Italy, and Iran. By the end of February, new reported cases outside China
increased faster than in China (based on the data available). However, this does not mean that the
epidemic in the country is over yet. The global surge of COVID-19 currently has four major
global concentrations: China, other countries in East Asia (South Korea and Japan), the Middle
East (Iran), and Europe (Italy, Germany, and France). Governments in all continents are bracing
for possible COVID-19 epidemics in their countries. Given the virus’s high infectivity and mild
symptoms demonstrated in the majority of cases, the continued spread of the virus around the
world seems to be inevitable.
China’s Actions
Since the COVID-19 epidemic in China reached its peak in mid-February, the Chinese
government has switched its policy to restart the economy, prompted by the deepening worries
about the near-term outlook for the national economy and employment. At the central26 EU SME Centre, SMEs in China: Policy Environment Report, July 2019
(https://www.eusmecentre.org.cn/sites/default/files/2019%20SME%20Policy%20Environment%20Report_0.pdf).
27 MBAChina, 清华、北大联合调研 995 家中小企业，如何穿越 3 个月的生死火线, February 25, 2020
(https://www.mbachina.com/html/tsinghua/202002/214377.html).
28 WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019, Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), February 16–24, 2020 (https://www.who.int/docs/defaultsource/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf).
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government level, China’s central bank has given the economy a monetary stimulus of RMB 1.2
trillion ($174 billion) in February to ease borrowing costs and funds availability. China
Development Bank, China’s principal industrial lender, has issued about $2 billion of bonds in
global bond markets, and several Chinese SOEs raised over $4 billion of “COVID bonds” to
shore up their finances in February.29 To help borrowing, the official interest rate set by the
central bank for commercial lenders was cut by a quarter percentage point, to 2.5 percent. The
State Council encouraged private commercial banks to postpone interest payments on loans to
small businesses experiencing cash flow difficulties until the end of June and defer the
repayments of principal for the time being. The State Council also ordered large state-owned
banks to increase lending to small businesses by at least 30 percent in the first half of 2020. Covid 19 Environment Impact On Disease And Exposure Prevention Essay
China’s three government-run policy banks were also told to lend RMB 350 billion ($49.7
billion) to small businesses at preferential rates. The central government encouraged local policy
makers to provide fiscal support to keep SMEs afloat. For example, Beijing announced a series
of measures to help struggling small businesses, including exemptions on some rent payments
for two months and reducing tax and contributions to the national social security fund.
To the local governments, China’s central government set a few principles on balancing the
reopening of businesses and supporting SMEs with epidemic control: First, COVID-19
prevention readiness is a criterion in reopening: Local governments will review business
reopening applications, with a focus on assessing whether the business has met the COVID-19
prevention requirements, monitoring the business on its implementation of the disease prevention
methods, and helping the business make a plan for emergencies. Second, business reopening is
happening in waves. Instead of letting all businesses open at one time, priority is given to the
businesses high on the local government’s list—for example, Shanghai prioritized businesses
that have an impact on city development and daily needs and businesses with large contributions
to the area economy. Zhejiang Province gave first priority to its major export industries. Third,
prioritize personal protective equipment (PPE) and medical production.30
The responsibility for implementation of these principles falls on local governments. Some
governments have focused more on outbreak control, such as where there is a need for morestringent rules on social distancing, travel case tracing, and quarantine (e.g., Beijing), while
others have focused more on jump-starting the economy, such as by supporting factories with
chartered buses, trains, and planes to transport some of the 290 million migrant workers (e.g.,
Shanghai).
Despite these efforts, SMEs still face the following challenges in reopening: First, local
quarantine policy: Until recently, most cities and their subdivisions (neighborhoods) still
required migrants or travelers from elsewhere to self-quarantine for 14 days. During these 14
days, either the factories or the workers themselves would have to cover rent and living costs.
29 Alison Tudor-Ackroyd, “Funding the Coronavirus Fight: Chinese Companies Sell US$4.1 Billion in Bonds to
Shore Up Finances as Economy Falters,” South China Morning Post, February 13, 2020
(https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3050411/funding-coronavirus-fight-chinese-companiessell-us41).
30 Xinhau News Agency, Analysis of Regional Policies on Businesses Reopening Support, China Economic
Information Service, Economic Analysis Report No. 1048, Epidemic Series No. 2, February 17, 2020.

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Second, business-reopening permits and health regulations: Many SMEs struggle to meet the
COVID-19 prevention requirements from the local government agencies. Some local
governments also push the burden of COVID-19 prevention entirely on businesses. If one
COVID-19 case cluster shows up in a business, the business will be closed for a longer period.
Third, broken supply chain and logistics: Upstream SME closures are felt by downstream
factories that are relying on the parts they produce for SMEs. Without the parts and necessary
logistics to bring in materials and ship out products, many factories can barely produce or have
no place to store the products. Most of the international shipping companies are slow in getting
back to work because of the ongoing epidemic and various travel bans. Fourth, worries about
revenue and cash flow: Because of the widespread low market demand, many small businesses
have found that reopening only means they continue to pay rent and salaries without revenue.
Many will pay staff minimal wages or lay off staff, which can further reduce demand.
Around the time of this testimony, several small-business owners in China told me that they
were working but not at full capacity. Many employees work from home, with several business
owners using the downtime to figure out the fragmented supply chain, look for new overseas
contracts, design training sessions for staff or redesign websites, or use online platforms and
social media to keep in touch with regular customers. Most considered their loss in the first
quarter a natural disaster that will have to be absorbed by their business; some were concerned
about borrowing more when the future revenue was uncertain. Many hope that their businesses
will gradually get back on track by the end of the second quarter.
Impact on the Economy
Luohan Academy estimated that, for every ten days of delay in return to work, the cost will
be 0.39 to 0.46 percent of quarterly GDP growth.31 The longer the delay in returning to work, the
bigger the impact on investor confidence and consumer confidence. This could lead to largescale closures of SMEs. The increased unemployment rate will in turn further suppress demand
and investment. The delay of factory recovery to full-capacity production will certainly affect
exports and further fracture the global supply chain. The hope is an economic recovery similar to
the fast rebound after SARS. Covid 19 Environment Impact On Disease And Exposure Prevention Essay
SARS cost China RMB 1 billion and $40 billion worldwide.33 Although the overall impact of
COVID-19 on China’s and the world’s economy is still hard to predict, many economists think
that the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak is likely to exceed that of SARS. There are six main
differences. (1) Scale: The COVID-19 epidemic has a much larger scale and affects more
countries and more people in the world than SARS. (2) Intervention: The COVID-19
intervention in China is unprecedented and the return to work will be gradual, albeit more
31 Luohan Academy, “Seven Trends in China’s Macro-Economy,” webpage, February 13, 2020
(https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/f_dwO4BMeyEZsv-xm8hXPg).
32 John Wong, Sarah Chan, and Liang Ruobing, “The Impact of SARS on Greater China Economics,” in John Wong
and Zheng Yongnian, eds., The SARS Epidemic: Challenges to China’s Crisis Management, Singapore: World
Scientific Publishing, 2004, p. 11.
33 J. W. Lee and W. McKibbin, “Estimating the Global Economic Cost of SARS,” in Stacey Knobler, Adel
Mahmoud, Stanley Lemon, Alison Mack, Laura Sivitz, and Katherine Oberholtzer, eds., Learning from SARS:
Preparing for the Next Disease Outbreak: Workshop Summary, Washington, D.C.: National Academies Press, 2004.
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sustainable. A slower recovery is expected than we saw after SARS. Of course, the saving of
lives because of the massive intervention will pay off in higher long-term economic growth. (3)
Timing: COVID-19 halted China’s economy right before the Chinese New Year. The most
affected sectors were tourism (11 percent of GDP) and retail (36 percent of GDP). Other highvalue sectors affected include personal services and entertainment.34 The economy is, therefore,
more sensitive to the domestic demand drop. (4) China’s role: China now also accounts for 17
percent of world’s economy, compared with 4.3 percent in 2003, when the SARS epidemic was
unfolding. China drives 30 percent of the world’s GDP growth and is a trade partner to more
than 100 countries. Wuhan and Hubei Province, the epicenter of COVID-19, are central to
multiple industries. The world economy is more likely to experience a chain reaction after a
downturn in China. (5) China’s economic growth: China’s growth has slowed down in the past
ten years, compared with 2003, when China’s economy growth was accelerating. (6) Internet
and electronics: On the positive side, the development of the internet and electronics in China
made e-commerce, online education, and remote working easier when adapting to the
requirements of the quarantine. This may relieve some of the losses in demand (e.g., many
restaurant or supermarket sales converted to online orders). Covid 19 Environment Impact On Disease And Exposure Prevention Essay
Impact on the Global Supply Chain
Finally, a few words on the global supply chain. Overall, the Chinese share of global output
includes 33 percent to 53 percent of global electrical equipment and motor vehicles parts; 52
percent of basic metals; 58 percent of mineral products; 58 percent of the commodity group
textiles, apparel, and leather; 40 percent of wood and wood products; and 35 percent of
pharmaceuticals. China also consumes (imports) about the same percentages of global products
in those categories. Several of these sectors are part of intricate, cross-provincial domestic supply
chains that sometimes even reach outside China—notably, the electrical equipment, electronics,
automotive, and textile sectors.35
Although it is too early to know the full effects of disruptions in supply chains, particularly
those with key segments in the most affected areas (Hubei Province, for instance, is a hub for the
automotive, electrical equipment, and ship-building sectors), some disruptions are inevitable. At
the end of February, only 30 percent of small business were back at work and many had only a
few months of cash to keep themselves afloat.36 The good news is that Chinese State Council
approved RMB 800 billion ($114.2 billion) for small-business lending in February, and SMEs
tend to be more nimble than large firms, adapting to adverse conditions and surviving against the
34 Bloomberg News, “Coronavirus Is More Dangerous for the Global Economy Than SARS,” January 31, 2020
(https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-31/the-coronavirus-is-more-dangerous-for-the-economy-thansars).
35 Jonathan Woetzel et al., China and the World: Inside the Dynamics of a Changing Relationship, McKinsey
Global Institute, July 2019 (https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/china/
china%20and%20the%20world%20inside%20the%20dynamics%20of%20a%20changing%20relationship/mgichina-and-the-world-full-report-june-2019-vf.ashx). 36 Frank Tang, “Coronavirus: China Grants Banks Extra Funding to Spur Loans to Hard Hit Small Businesses,”
South China Morning Post, February 26, 2020 (https://www.scmp.com/economy/chinaeconomy/article/3052474/coronavirus-china-grants-banks-extra-funding-spur-loans-hard).
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odds. China is still, as noted, largely dependent on SMEs to drive the economy’s growth, and
will likely benefit from this industrial structure. The Chinese government at the provincial level
has historically been supportive of SMEs. If it continues this support, there are reasons to be
optimistic about SMEs surviving the epidemic and regaining their role in the economy.
Even before the epidemic outbreak, the U.S.-China trade war caused many American
companies to move their supply chains out of China, which can be more costly for American
SMEs. Those that remain may suffer from the delayed production and shipment until the second
quarter of the year. The emerging epidemic in the United States, East Asia, and Europe may
exacerbate the trade war–induced interruption of the global supply chain that SMEs rely on. Covid 19 Environment Impact On Disease And Exposure Prevention Essay
Equally worrisome is COVID-19’s potential impact on the logistics sectors.37 China has
seven out of the nine busiest ports in the world, where 80 percent of trade of world goods by
volume is carried by sea. Global maritime shipping volumes have decreased heavily because of
COVID-19—already the equivalent of 1 percent of total global volume has been lost, amounting
to $350 million loss in revenue per week. Global air freight has also experienced decreased
capacity because of the travel ban and reduced air travel worldwide. Land transport velocity has
also slowed down and led to overstocking in a number of ports. The COVID-19 impact on global
logistics will take an extended period to correct. Inbound container volumes at U.S. seaports are
projected to be down 12.9 percent in February and 9.5 percent in March, compared with the
same time a year ago Covid 19 Environment Impact On Disease And Exposure Prevention Essay